ANALISIS MULTIPLIER PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH TERHADAP KONTRIBUSI EKONOMI DI NEGARA-NEGARA G20 BERDASARKAN TEORI KEYNES

Jalaluddin Iman Rahadianto; Ignatia Martha Hendrati; Wirya Wardaya

doi:10.57094/jpe.v7i1.4532

Jalaluddin Iman Rahadianto Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur
Ignatia Martha Hendrati Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur
Wirya Wardaya Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur

DOI: https://doi.org/10.57094/jpe.v7i1.4532

Keywords: Keynes; Government Debt; Government Expenditure; G20; Open Trade

Abstract

The government plays an important role in boosting GDP and maintaining economic stability in a country, especially in G20 member countries. Economic balance can be achieved when aggregate expenditure equals national income. Therefore, this study was conducted to examine the impact of government spending, open trade, and government debt on economic contribution in G20 countries. Economic contribution is the ratio of the real GDP of each G20 member country to the average real GDP of all G20 member countries. The research method used is quantitative analysis with Panel-Fix Effect Data through Keynes' theory as the grand theory. The results show that government spending plays a constructive role in increasing economic contribution, open trade has a negative impact on economic contribution, while government debt actually suppresses economic contribution. Thus, this study confirms that economic contribution in G20 countries is influenced by a combination of fiscal instruments, trade structure, and state financing policies in a multiplier effect. Balance in the policies issued by the government is the key to maintaining economic stability.

References

Andriani, V., Muljaningsih, S., & Asmara, K. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Penanaman Modal Asing, Ekspor, Utang Luar Negeri, Dan Tingkat Inflasi Terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto Indonesia. Equilibrium: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi, Manajemen dan Akuntansi, 10(2).
Anwar, A., Mifrahi, M. N., & Kusairee, M. A. B. Z. A. 2024, ‘International Trade and Economic Growth in ASEAN’, Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Keuangan, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 109-115. https://doi.org/10.20885/JKEK.vol3.iss1.art14
Cahyadin, M., Sarmidi, T., Khalid, N., & Law, S. H. 2023, ‘Public Debt and Budget Deficit Threshold Levels on New Fiscal Sustainability Indicator’, Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 97-116. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v12i1.31005
Christien, Ayu, P., & Silalahi, W. P. 2023, ‘ANALISIS MULTIPLIER EFFECT PARIWISATA F1H2O BAGI MASYARAKAT KAWASAN DANAU TOBA, BALIGE’, Pediaqu: Jurnal Pendidkan Sosial dan Humaniora, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 11775-11786.
Datau, N. R. K., & Hendrati, I. M. (2024). Export Performance Analysis on Indonesian Yellowfin Thunas (HS 030342) in the United States Market. Jambura Equilibrium Journal, 6(2).
Hendrati, I. M., Esquivias, M. A., Perdana, P., Yuhertiana, I., & Rusdiyanto, R. (2024). US-China trade war on ASEAN region: oligopoly or systemic market structure? Cogent Business & Management, 11(1), 2306686. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2024.2306686
Huidrom, R., Kose, M. A., Lim, J., & Ohnsorge, F. 2020, Why do fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal positions? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8784. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/928971467137028237
Kitutila, Y. 2024, ‘Estimation of the public debt threshold effects on economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries’, African Development Bank, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 377-390. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12749
Lestari, H. P., & Hendrati, I. M. (2024). The Effect Of Household Consumption Expenditure, Government Expenditure And Per Capita Income On Economic Growth In Sidoarjo Regency. Ekombis Review, 12(1).
Machali, I. 2021, Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif Panduan Praktis Merencanakan, Melaksanakan dan Analisis dalam Penelitian Kuantitatif, Fakultas Ilmu Tarbiyah dan Keguruan Universitas Islam Negeri (UIN) Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta.
Meiriza, M. S., Sinaga, D. L., Tinambunan, F. U., & Saragi, S. L. 2024, ‘Teori Ekonomi Keynesian Mengenai Inflasi dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Ekonomi Modern’, INNOVATIVE: Journal of Social Science Research, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 2433-2445.
Phommouny, P. & Shuquan, H. 2024, ‘The Relationship between Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Laos: Evidance from ARDL Bounds Testing Approach’, Scholars Journal of Economics, Business and Management, vol. 11, no. 8, pp. 234-241. https://doi.org/10.36347/sjebm.2024.v11i08.001
Retnasih, N. R. 2025, The trade openness puzzle: insights into economic growth dynamics in ASEAN+3 economies. Journal of Innovation in Business and Economics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.22219/jibe.v10i01.32952
Ridwan & Nawir, I. S. 2021, Buku Ekonomi Publik, Pustaka Pelajar.
Sheremirov, V. & Spirovska, S. 2022, ‘Fiscal multipliers in advanced and developing countries: Evidence from military spending’, Journal of Public Economics, vol. 208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104631
Yanti, D., Mawartina, J., Sarlini, H., & Pangestoeti, W. 2025, ‘Mekanisme Pengelolaan Utang Negara dan Implikasinya terhadap Perkonomian Nasional’, Jurnal Hukum, Administrasi Publik dan Negara, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 96-114. https://doi.org/10.62383/hukum.v2i1.97
Wahed, M., Sishadiyati, & Imaningsih, N. 2021, EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN: Kajian Teori dan Studi Empiris, Mitra Cendekia Media.